Cuban8 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Something occurred to me a while back concerning all the talk about how electric cars will replace petrol and diesel in the near future. At present, a conventional petrol or diesel car will depreciate considerably to a point at which those that are not particularly well off financially will be able to afford to buy a cheap but decent second hand vehicle for work, family transport etc. For instance, a standard new Ford Focus or similar is around the fifteen grand mark, but a well maintained and perfectly serviceable used example that could be ten years old will only be around three thousand pounds, possibly much less and hence within the budget of those of modest means. My concern is that will electric vehicles depreciate in value to the same extent as current petrol/diesel, thus bringing them within the budget of those with only a couple of grand or just a few hundred quid to spend? Will the cost of a replacement battery render an old electric car just fit for the scrap heap or only good for a hopelessly short range between charges? Will we eventually be cutting off a whole section of society from owning the examples of practical and relatively inexpensive personal transport that's available today? It's all very well offering those of us who can afford new cars, incentives to ditch our conventional vehicles through scrappage schemes, tax breaks etc, but spare a thought for the poorly paid workers who will never be in a position to afford many thousands of pounds on new or nearly new cars, electric or otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Cuban you are right! It's pure Thatcherism to get the roads clear for the elite! But the lack of charging points will prevent anyone without their own parking space with electric supply to be able to run an electric car anyway..... Edited By kc on 21/01/2018 12:27:40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The result will probably be that old petrol cars will be endlessly repaired by imecunious people just like we did in the 1960's when every young man learnt DIY car repair or he had no wheels. Now youngster seem to have no interest in doing anything - car repair or decorating etc - hence they waste energy doing excercise in a gym instaed of straining muscles working on a car. The roads will become like Cuba with ancient cars everywhere. I have just bought a hybrid car and halved my petrol bill doing the same journeys as before with the same size car..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoff S Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 kc: Unfortunately, modern cars seem to need very hi-tech back-up systems to repair them so it's not likely that someone with a tools and a bit of nous will be able to keep them running like kids did 50/60 years ago. My pal's dad bought him a car back in 1958, trouble was that his dad lived in Ayr and we were both working in Welwyn Garden City. We took the bus to Scotland and it took us 2 days to drive his 1935 Morris 8 the few 100 miles back. At least we didn't have to contend with an MoT test which would have condemned the 3/4 turn play on the steering in an instant but we coped with it quite well There was an interesting article in the Guardian yesterday about a small outfit manufacturing a car powered from a hydrogen fuel cell. Those could be re-fuelled as quickly as a conventional liquid fuelled car. Geoff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuban8 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Quite apart from the affordability or otherwise of electric vehicles for some sections of society, there is still a question as to whether electric will actually turn out to be the game changer that it's held up to be. I'm not convinced that it will turn out as expected within the timescale that's been defined. Certainly, battery technology will continue to improve over the coming twenty years, although whether it'll reach the energy density of that contained in a battery that is the same physical size of a ten gallon petrol or diesel tank giving a range of 600+ miles is open to debate. I read an article a while back claiming that the way to go is actually clean burn diesel running on bio-fuel, which after all, with conventional bio fuel is just captured and stored solar energy. The clean-burn being achieved from both radical fuel (possibly genetically engineered) and engine improvements. GM does sound scary, but so does a huge programme of building nuclear stations to provide plug-in power for charging. I think the article that I saw was in Scientific American, but this http://sciencenordic.com/biofuel-breakthrough-scientists-use-gmo-yeast-produce-fuel is the same info Edited By Cuban8 on 21/01/2018 13:36:25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil 9 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 interesting thread. apparently electric cars require a lot less servicing so it makes sense they will hold there value for longer. some company will probably make a fortune from less well of households buy selling cars at small monthly payments with high interest just like the bright house business model. I wonder if a car will come on the market with interchangeable batteries so a battery swap can be done mid journey to avoid waiting for a charges. whether you like them or not they seem to be the future choice of power with Volvo already announcing the are switching production to electric only. I wonder what happened to hydrogen power, bio fuels and quite a few other seemingly promising alternatives they Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil 9 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 it is a fact thought for the vast majority of car journeys the current range of electric cars is adequate. but go past that range and you do hit a problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuban8 Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Posted by Phil 9 on 21/01/2018 13:33:50: it is a fact thought for the vast majority of car journeys the current range of electric cars is adequate. but go past that range and you do hit a problem Try towing a caravan........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Member Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 [This posting has been removed] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Member Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 [This posting has been removed] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Fry Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 One of the problems with bio fuel is you take the land someone hoped to use to feed his family, or clear Indians off Amazonian rain forest to plant up for starch for biofuel. Times change, and the technology's change even faster. I'm not sure if electric is the way to go. I would suggest if we developed cheap, non fuel, no pollution technology, i.e. Hydrogen fusion reactors, we as a species would then use so much energy the waste heat would kill us. We have to, as a species start to treat energy use with a lot more caution and respect. But returning to the post, I would have thought electric only driverless boxes would be as cheap as chips to build. And there are a lot of vehicles on the road which never go far from base. But in the medium term, the intermediate changeover technologepies between what we use now, and twenty years hence will go out of fashion very quickly. Edited By Don Fry on 21/01/2018 13:53:52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Geoff you are right, so the answer is to buy a late 1990's car which has little in the way of electronics. They fetch peanuts now But it's the attitude of todays youngster that will be ( or is already) the downfall of our country. People must expect to do things for themselves. If only I had kept my 1935 Morris 8 which I sold in 1963....... But to return to the main subject - electric cars will not be useful because most people in cities park in the road. Putting charging points at every possible parking space will not be possible. If you go out and cannot park by a charge point so you cannot drive home it will be the time you sell the electric car as useless. But if everyone did buy an electric car then what happens when they all come home from work, put their car on charge,turn the kettle on and the electric cooker........will the electricity supply cope? The future will be microcars - some new version of the 1950's bubble cars which just about carried 2 people and took up little space. A Segway with a fibreglass body perhaps....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil 9 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Posted by Cuban8 on 21/01/2018 13:37:45: Posted by Phil 9 on 21/01/2018 13:33:50: it is a fact thought for the vast majority of car journeys the current range of electric cars is adequate. but go past that range and you do hit a problem Try towing a caravan........... the vast majority of car journeys don't involve a caravan thank goodness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Fry Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 That's two caravans then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Member Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 [This posting has been removed] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil 9 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Posted by kc on 21/01/2018 13:52:47: The future will be microcars - some new version of the 1950's bubble cars which just about carried 2 people and took up little space. A Segway with a fibreglass body perhaps....... electric micro cars for commuting is a great idea but the concept does not seem popular with the one size fits all solution still being pursued seemingly at the expense of all other options the car's position as a status symbol and its place in modern culture will be hard to shake off. in the current market place a car has to offer more than just being a tool for a job . but then you start getting into the wider issue of the consumer society vs natural resorses Edited By Phil 9 on 21/01/2018 14:09:56 Edited By Phil 9 on 21/01/2018 14:14:21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony F Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Mines a salary sacrifice job and I use it solely for work. When I'm off it just sits there. 50 mpg it's perfect for 2 and from work lol 2 years and 3 months old with 7000 on the clock. I know for a fact I'll never own a new car personally. But the wife buys a brand new one every 3 years for our family Edited By Tony F on 21/01/2018 14:16:14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Stainforth Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Are we investing in sufficient alternative energy sources to make the electicity? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Bran Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 You mean are we burning enough energy to make and fuel power stations and the extra infrastructure to be able to charge the cars that will save a little energy while running?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Bran Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 While its dangerously near off topic, our "new" school is wood pellet fuelled which "saves energy", Yea, right, what about the cost of making the pellets AND the frequent diesel lorry journies required to fuel the schools bunkers? And the cost of making those purpose made lorries, etc, etc, etc........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eflightray Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Posted by kc on 21/01/2018 12:38:20: ....................................................... I have just bought a hybrid car and halved my petrol bill doing the same journeys as before with the same size car..... I also have a hybrid, a Hyundai Ioniq, great drive. Snag is it's too much fun to drive economically, though I'm still getting 55mpg. An electric powered car should be designed from the ground up, not just modify an existing petrol/diesel model. The current trend in 'cross-over', SUV, boxy style models ignores the advantages of good low drag aerodynamics when it comes to economy. Ray. Edited By eflightray on 21/01/2018 15:30:51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piers Bowlan Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Trying to second guess the future is impossible, as we all know. Personally, I think that the electric car has a great future, even if they are not quite there yet with the technology. Electric milk floats, remember those back in the 60's? That was where the technology was 'back in the day' with their array of lead acid acid batteries and DC motors, no wonder no one thought there was any future in electric cars! So now we have Lithium ion cells with three times the charge density and five times the specific density (allowing for their higher voltage) plus motors that are 90% efficient. That is now... Consider the future. Although studied in the 80's extensively, because of their huge potential, metal air batteries are now receiving renewed scientific interest on a global scale. Lithium air batteries for instance, have the potential to be a game changer due to a vastly superior charge density (5 X to Li ion) and Iron air batteries could potentially be extremely cheap due to the abundance of the raw material. At present there are serious problems like low cycle life (30 cycles) and poor reliability but new technologies like 3D printing and nano technology may be elements that solve the puzzle and makes electric car ownership a reality for everyone one day. As for charging batteries, if there is the demand for the cars the infrastructure will follow. We may not get a lot of sun for solar energy generation at this time of year (!) but we are not short of wind and being an island surrounded by water, wave and tidal power has the potential to produce the extra energy we need (as well as provide employment). We just need to invest in it instead of building new, (old technology), nuclear fission reactors!. Edited By Piers Bowlan on 21/01/2018 16:29:54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff 1959 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I can see a time when nobody will 'own' a car anyway, you'll just call one from your app. and a driverless vehicle will arrive at your door, pop in your credit card and destination and off you go, simple. (As long as you can get a couple of models in the back of course) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Marsh Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Electric cars won't be happening any time soon. They are impractical for general use, just short hops to the shops and back, insufficient charge points and confusing pay system. For example, recently I was coming back from a show from the south and stopped at Hilton Park services on the M6 north. A chap was having trouble of getting his card to work. I spent a while chatting about said electric cars, but what happened is that he had I think a ABB payment card, or Siemens, which he'd used the same machine before. He was traveling up from Oxfordshire to watch a shop in Manchester. When he came to use his ABB card, it wouldn't accept it this time, as the machine had changed to Siemens and wasn't compatable. He tried to use another machine somewhere else, but there were cars all using the only two charge points, but had enough range to make Hilton Park. Of course, by this time, he only had 20 miles range left - far short to reach Manchester city center, and couldn't get his car to accept the charge, so stuck there. By this time, he was going to miss the show, an hour had passed before I arrived and he was making calls to his provider to see if they could get his card to work. I don't think I will get a electric car. I got back into my car, started and drove off and filled at a station on the A500 with no problems. Also, I keep thinking of electric cars as thus: UGHHH!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jez Saunders Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Looking to the near future there is obviously going to be mixture of oil and electric powered cars. Electric driven by the consumer being enviromently aware,making a social statement of wealth eg the Teslar etc , grants and subsidized product placement. This is driving the development of more efficient batteries ,longer life and the cost will be driven down making electric cars avaliable to the masses and hopefully of benifit to our fragile planet or more like the fragility of human kind and the animals plants we share it . The planet will be here long after we have gone! At the moment I know electric companies are looking into ways of developing an infrastructure of charging points and how to smooth out periods of high demand, one idea is to use all the vehicles plugged into the system to act as a huge storage devise to smooth out the peaks and troughs of demand. Also I understand batteries of the current generation of cars when they come to the end of their efficient life in the vehicle they can be used in "powerwalls" to store power from solar panels etc and have a useful live of perhaps decades in this guise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.