Electric Cars.

[Former Member]

[This posting has been removed]

[PatMc]

Posted by Andy48 on 22/01/2018 13:03:22:

Posted by Geoff Sleath on 21/01/2018 20:22:23:

Paul, when I was a teenager in the 1950s I worked near London right by the A1. It was a single carriageway except where it passed DeHavillands in Hatfleld and I happily cycled along it on my old 3 speed hub gear pedal cycle to night school because it was so quiet in the evenings. I met and old chap who could remember when it was little more than a cart track (no cars at all., just horse drawn traffic) but look at it now. Dual carriageway, multi-lane all the way from the M25 north to Scotland. Times change and the rate of change is increasing.

Never say 'Won't happen' because it will, one way or another.

Geoff

Nooo! Try driving along the A1 north of Newcastle. There's still 60+ miles of the A1 before you reach the Scottish border. A significant length is single carriageway, but then the powers that be never consider anything north of the Midlands, and dualling of this road has been repeatedly rejected. How much is being spent on Crossrail?

I also noticed Geoff's comment re dual carriageway from the M25 north to Scotland. Since it doesn't mention following the route of the A1 I think it is correct. AFAIK there's dual carriageway from the M25 all the way to Glasgow via the M6 - A74(M) - M74.

[MattyB]

Way back in the distant past (well on page 1 actually but you get the picture!) the OP posted a question about depreciation of EVs...

Posted by Cuban8 on 21/01/2018 11:48:05:

Something occurred to me a while back concerning all the talk about how electric cars will replace petrol and diesel in the near future.

At present, a conventional petrol or diesel car will depreciate considerably to a point at which those that are not particularly well off financially will be able to afford to buy a cheap but decent second hand vehicle for work, family transport etc.

For instance, a standard new Ford Focus or similar is around the fifteen grand mark, but a well maintained and perfectly serviceable used example that could be ten years old will only be around three thousand pounds, possibly much less and hence within the budget of those of modest means.

My concern is that will electric vehicles depreciate in value to the same extent as current petrol/diesel, thus bringing them within the budget of those with only a couple of grand or just a few hundred quid to spend? Will the cost of a replacement battery render an old electric car just fit for the scrap heap or only good for a hopelessly short range between charges?

Will we eventually be cutting off a whole section of society from owning the examples of practical and relatively inexpensive personal transport that's available today?

...so a point on this. I was (maybe still am) very interested in an EV for our second car as a runabout, but found it's very hard to make the numbers work on a new one. Why? Look at the depreciation rates on current EVs like the Leaf; they are absolutely hideous! 2 year old cars that went for £25-30k can be had for around £6-7k plus a £50 a month battery lease. No private buyer can afford to take that kind of hit, it squishes any financial advantages associated with reduced running costs.

Why is this? Well apparently many consumers are worried about long term battery life and the possibility there will be a leap forward in battery technology in the short term that renders current models obsolete overnight. Result - people are scared to buy a secondhand one, despite the fact there are Leafs being used as Taxis with 150k on the odometer and still 75% battery capacity or better.

My conclusion? Well clearly buying any of the "normal" EVs (i.e. not Teslas!) new is not easy to justify on a financial basis unless you drive in a relatively unusual way i.e. high mileages made up of lots of short-medium range trips. However buying a secondhand 18-24 month old Leaf and running it for 3 years might be a pretty affordable form of motoring providing you don't do long trips with any frequency; certainly fine as a second car. In 3 years EVs and their financials could be a very different proposition, who knows...

Edited By MattyB on 22/01/2018 16:56:01

[Geoff S]

Posted by Andy48 on 22/01/2018 13:03:22:

Posted by Geoff Sleath on 21/01/2018 20:22:23:

Paul, when I was a teenager in the 1950s I worked near London right by the A1. It was a single carriageway except where it passed DeHavillands in Hatfleld and I happily cycled along it on my old 3 speed hub gear pedal cycle to night school because it was so quiet in the evenings. I met and old chap who could remember when it was little more than a cart track (no cars at all., just horse drawn traffic) but look at it now. Dual carriageway, multi-lane all the way from the M25 north to Scotland. Times change and the rate of change is increasing.

Never say 'Won't happen' because it will, one way or another.

Geoff

Nooo! Try driving along the A1 north of Newcastle. There's still 60+ miles of the A1 before you reach the Scottish border. A significant length is single carriageway, but then the powers that be never consider anything north of the Midlands, and dualling of this road has been repeatedly rejected. How much is being spent on Crossrail?

I was bit dubious about 'all the way to Scotland' I confess because we've always turned off at Scotch Corner and either gone across to Penrith and through Gretna or over Carter Bar and via Jedburgh though we went as far as Durham on Boxing Day.

Though I agree with your implied comment on money spent in the SE and London compared to just about everywhere else.

Geoff

[J D 8]

The Topgear team came up with the answer to the limited range of electric cars some years ago,just string chicken wire above all motorways and fit a contact pole on the car,

Not as daft as it sounds,work is happening on on the move charging,

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

O.P sounds a bit political to me, but I'll have a dabble, less well off are already penalised, take a look at the Road Tax system on cars, new car and do 20,000 + mpa low road tax, old car doing not much mpa much higher road tax, and then it turns out the cars aren't the green eco friendly beasts they described as. Less mileage = less polution via brakes/tyres/emmisions etc. Put the tax on fuel = you pollute you pay, yep you would need to work something out for business or cost would get passed on, or maybe you could develop cheaper reliable public transport and encourage folk to use it. Ah but ?

[ChrisB]

Posted by Tom Thomas on 22/01/2018 05:01:45:

Posted by ChrisB on 21/01/2018 22:52:12:

I don’t suppose it will John but still, I hate the thought of our farmer filling his fields with solar panels as that would stop us flying completely. At least crops can be overflown.

Can't believe you are being serious with that statement.

Selfishness is ugly.

Oh yes Tom, I am being 100% serious!

Unless it had passed you by, this is a model flying forum. Most people fly in the countryside, often from sites that have crops nearby. Clearly there are 'arrivals' in those crops and for the most part that is fine. That can't happen if the field is full of solar panels. I have been flying model aircraft for 27 years since I was 11. I consider it to not just be a pastime to dabble with now and then but part of my life. A purpose built workshop, a modelling van (dirty nasty diesel 2007 covering 2000 miles a year) and over 30 flyable models of all shapes and sizes totalling a small fortune, very much like many hundreds of other aeromodellers. I'm heavily involved in the running of a club including mowing, membership secretary and events.

So yes I am being serious and if that makes me selfish then so be it!

Edited By ChrisB on 22/01/2018 17:41:44

[Andy48]

I think you've also got to look at battery degradation. If Mitsubishi guarantee their battery to have a storage capacity of greater than 72% after 8 years, that means one could reasonably expect a 3% degradation a year. May not sound much but it soon adds up. 30 mile rage from new, 25.7 mile range after 5 years, 23.5mile range after 8 years.

[Andy48]

Posted by Geoff Sleath on 22/01/2018 17:05:04:

I was bit dubious about 'all the way to Scotland' I confess because we've always turned off at Scotch Corner and either gone across to Penrith and through Gretna or over Carter Bar and via Jedburgh though we went as far as Durham on Boxing Day.

Driving up to Scotland one day along the A1 north of Newcastle, and they were doing some sort of road repairs. There was a man with a red/green stop/go board! Haven't seen one of those for years. Then you drive down to Peterborough and its 4 lanes wide! The worst stretch is between the M18 and the junction with the M1 near Leeds.

The stretch up to Scotch Corner was planned to be upgraded to motorway standard years ago then cancelled, later restarted. Its still not finished.

Its not bad up to Durham, though usually very busy.

[john stones 1 - Moderator]

Posted by Percy Verance on 22/01/2018 06:47:38:

One thing is for certain, that being the pace of change. Not all that change brings will suit everyone. Such as was mentioned earlier regarding towing a caravan. Somehow I don't imagine being able to tow was very far up the list of considerations of those whom are involved in bringing about the changes new technology will introduce. Likewise, we as model flyers will probably need to evolve. Perhaps even flying alternative types of model in different locations out of necessity......... And yes Tom, I see challenges ahead for chain smoking, beer swilling individuals whom perhaps might like to tow a caravan with a smokey old V6 engined vehicle........Change we will though because we'll have​ to.

Edited By Percy Verance on 22/01/2018 06:55:05

I love an optimist, life can be hard enough without being doom laden, we will change ? absolutely...it'll be driven by other factors than what's best though. I want one springs to mind.

[Former Member]

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[eflightray]

This lunch time on BBC 1, program 'The A1: Britains longest road', an interesting comment by the police.

There was an accident, and one of the cars was a hybrid, a police office said they couldn't touch the car in case it was 'live' and they got electrocuted, They would wait until a break down guy turned up.

I googled and found a Daily Mail story from 2012, headline --

First responders 'at risk of electrocution from hybrid and electric cars after serious accidents'

Ray.

[Former Member]

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[Andrew767]

Posted by Percy Verance on 22/01/2018 18:21:10:

Matty, re: Buying a used Nissan Leaf. I read an article in (I think) What Car magazine regarding used Leaf purchase. It seems the older Jap built cars are less desirable because of their older, more costly type of battery pack. It also seems the earlier Leaf variants are not as well assembled as later (post 2013) UK built examples which have slightly increased range. Now there's a pleasant surprise. Basically, the Leaf seems a sound proposition if the car suits you. I'm not sure I care for the Miss Marple styling myself, but hey we're all different. Used values seem robust enough, compared to similarly sized conventionally powered cars.

Incidentally Matty, as it presently stands hybrid vehicles are taking just under 4% of the new market, with the Toyota Yaris Hybrid being the best selling model. And of that share of the market, about 10% are of the pure electric variety. So certainly a long way to go, but stranger things have happened. Many moons ago, an elderly motorcycle enthusiast was recalling the days when a Japanese company named Honda introduced the C50, a little step thru scooter for commuters. Hardened bikers laughed of course. After all, who'd want a Japanese motorbike? The rest of course is history.......

Edited By Percy Verance on 22/01/2018 18:59:34

Percy are those the 2017 sales figures?. At December 2017 there were 115000 EVs of all types on UK roads.63% were Outlanders.

The increased range on the Leaf is down to 2 battery options, a 24kwh and a 30kwh. 2018 model will have 40kwh.

What the capacity of some of these batteries will be in 10yrs is anyones guess as there are no vehicles of that age to prove one way or the other. However, Mitsubishi and Yuasa, who make the cells, expect around 90% in normal usage. That is one of the reasons why the battery warranty increased from 5 to 8yrs,the packs are simply standing up better than expected.

As for the OPs original question. My PHEV cost £40k when new in 2014 and with the then subsidy of £5k, £35k. At 3yrs old and 35000miles i paid just under £17k so quite a saving. They will get cheaper and more people will be able to afford them.

Andrew

[Former Member]

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[Geoff S]

Posted by Percy Verance on 22/01/2018 19:30:05:

There are risks as with any car Ray. Over the years, as I've travelled around, I've come across several accidents with not dissimilar elements of risk. I've seen a crashed Mitsubishi Galant (it was 35 odd years ago) which had been rear ended. Petrol was pouring out of the tank onto the road. About two years later I passed a Hillman Avenger (again, it was a while back) which had burst into flames while being driven. Thankfully, all four occupants had got out safely. All car accidents carry risk, full stop.

In the 60s one of my brothers had a holiday job at the M1 services at Trowel (between J25 & 26). A Reliant Robin spontaneously combusted when the owner started it after re-fuelling. I think, because of the location, several fire engines attended the blaze. I saw it the day after and there was almost nothing left because the fibre glass body had completely burnt and the engine had melted. Wherever a lot of energy is stored in a restricted volume there's always a potential hazard be the energy in liquid or electrical form.

Our current car, a Mitsubishi Space Star, is about 12 years old and, although it's only done about 40k miles, we're thinking of replacing it in the spring. I dread the idea but it may be necessary. I fancy one of those cars that look like small vans with a decent amount of loading space for either planes or bikes. A hybrid or an electric is a possibility but it will certainly not be new. We already have hybrid bikes (legs and electric) now I've converted them

Geoff

[Andy48]

Posted by Andrew767 on 22/01/2018 19:44:09:

What the capacity of some of these batteries will be in 10yrs is anyones guess as there are no vehicles of that age to prove one way or the other. However, Mitsubishi and Yuasa, who make the cells, expect around 90% in normal usage. That is one of the reasons why the battery warranty increased from 5 to 8yrs,the packs are simply standing up better than expected.

Well, it is a Mitsubishi.

[Piers Bowlan]

I believe the early Nissan Leafs suffered from rapid loss of battery capacity. They used a slightly different battery chemistry to other manufacturers. They also tended to use smaller capacity batteries that didn't like being roasted in the Californian sun when fully charged! I believe that there were a lot of warrantee claims.

It would be nice if the different manufacturers could get together to agree standard battery specifications. Interchangeability and economies of scale could be a game changer as far as reducing cost. Sadly I expect every brand to be stubbornly different, rather like the myriad of different RC Tx protocols!

[Former Member]

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[Andrew767]

Percy

Have a look at "Fully Charged" on youtube. The road test has been done. A very different beast to the original.

Andrew

[Former Member]

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[Mark Kettle 1]

Battery packs on the Prius cars can be DIY improved, made better and then they give a longer life to the car, kits are available.

[Former Member]

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[Former Member]

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[Cuban8]

Posted by john stones 1 on 22/01/2018 17:34:03:

O.P sounds a bit political to me.

Made me laugh out loud.

From what I've been reading elsewhere since my OP, the expectation is that the depreciation on some electric vehicles is likely to be just as severe as with petrol/diesel - and currently (sorry) a used Nissan Leaf of about six years old can be picked up for around the £6K mark. So at about ten years old it'll probably be only worth a half or a third again. Not exactly 'old banger' money but within the reach of most people. Once 'upgrade fever' takes a hold, used prices will be guaranteed to tumble.

Bit of a question on batteries - you might pick up a vehicle for under a couple of grand with a dud power pack, but I guess that in the fullness of time there'll be plenty of third party suppliers who'll give the main dealers a run for their money both for repairs and spares rather like we have now.

The political angle is a worry though - with the revenue from fuel set to tumble in the future, what will they tax instead?