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Steve J17/08/2019 14:00:57
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Posted by Martin Harris on 17/08/2019 13:52:51:

We can only hope that Paul Maynard is more open to listening to the argument that the beneficiaries of the scheme (who should bear the costs of it) are the commercial interests passing through, or wishing to exploit the lower airspace.

I agree with your point, but I don't believe that this is part of Paul Maynard's brief. The DfT website has Baroness Vere looking after 'drones'.

Steve

Martin Harris17/08/2019 18:19:31
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My understanding is that the BMFA are currently in discussions with Mr Maynard.

CARPERFECT17/08/2019 18:55:37
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Does it say anywhere how often the £16.50 has to be paid ? is it yearly ? As 170,000 x £16.50 is £2.8 mil. And if there are only 40,000 of us then it will be £70 per person. What i have read is they are expecting 170.000 over 18 months

Steve J17/08/2019 19:44:37
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Posted by Martin Harris on 17/08/2019 18:19:31:

My understanding is that the BMFA are currently in discussions with Mr Maynard.

Hopefully they are going better than the meeting with Baroness Vere went.

Steve

CARPERFECT18/08/2019 11:28:09
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Just been reading the CAA drone registration/ test. The cost is per year. We have a number of OAP`s in our club that say they are not carrying on when this comes in. So if that figure is rolled out there will not be 40,000

Jeremy Wilkins18/08/2019 12:48:47
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Posted by CARPERFECT on 18/08/2019 11:28:09:

The cost is per year. We have a number of OAP`s in our club that say they are not carrying on when this comes in. So if that figure is rolled out there will not be 40,000.

HI CARPERFECT.

The registration charge, with effect from 1 October 2019, is to be paid annually. But [as per paragraph 3.3 c) of CAP 1775] there is 'the intention that this frequency may move to 3 years'.

The possibility that BMFA etc., Members may not register, is something that Brian Spearing and SteveJ were referring to, on page one of this thread.

The difference between the 170,000 and 40,000, is what the CAA 'assumes' [based on paragraphs 3.4 - 3.7 of CAP 1775] are 'small unmanned aircraft' [SUA] flyers currently not Members of the BMFA, etc. and, presumably, those who become SUA flyers, in the initial 18 month period.

In paragraph 3.11 of CAP 1775, the CAA mentions a figure of 251,000 registrations - which is their estimate of 'initial registrations and renewals in the first 18-month period to 31 March 2021'.

Cheers,

Jeremy Wilkins

Martin Harris18/08/2019 14:55:06
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251,000 registrations in 18 months!?

Does this mean that give or take the small percentage dropping out through death or disinterest and new entrants coming into the hobby, the estimate assumes that of 170 000 users only 81 000 are expected to continue flying after the first year? (170k initial registrations + 170k renewals - 251k total registrants and renewals = 89k shortfall, 170k initial registrants - 89k who don't renew = 81k remaining)

Seems to be a win/win situation for commercial interests. Either the estimates are somewhere near reality in which case the lower airspace control system will have the bulk of its start up costs paid for by members of the recreational model and drone flying community or if they are vastly higher than what would seem to be realistic to those of us involved in the hobby we will eventually be priced out of existence by rapidly spiraling charges to cover the cost of the system, clearing the lower airspace for exploitation.

We can only hope that the BMFA negotiations impress the reality of the situation on the policy makers and the costs are passed on to the beneficiaries.

Edited By Martin Harris on 18/08/2019 14:57:42

Jeremy Wilkins18/08/2019 15:58:15
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Posted by Martin Harris on 18/08/2019 14:55:06:

251,000 registrations in 18 months!?

Does this mean that give or take the small percentage dropping out through death or disinterest and new entrants coming into the hobby, the estimate assumes that of 170 000 users only 81 000 are expected to continue flying after the first year? (170k initial registrations + 170k renewals - 251k total registrants and renewals = 89k shortfall, 170k initial registrants - 89k who don't renew = 81k remaining)

Hi Martin. I've bolded part of your calculation and this is because I'm unsure about its correctness.

The 170,000 and the 251,000 both cover the same initial 18 month period - 1 October 2019, to 31 March 2021.

The 170,000, as I see it, does not represent the numbers registered as at 30 November 2019 [who would have to re-register twelve months later, on 30 November 2020 and, therefore, within the 18 month initial period] and would be counted 'twice', as in your calculation.

I think that the 170,000 includes people who register (for the first time) beyond 30 November 2019 and all the way up to 31 March 2021.

Anybody who registers (for the first time) after 1 April 2020, is not going to have to renew until after 1 April 2021, which will exclude their renewal from inclusion in the first 18 month's figures.

To me, the 251,000 figure, for 'initial registrations and renewals' is less confusing/more 'meaningful' [word used advisedly] - as this appears to be the CAA's attempt to encompass all that they think will occur, during the initial 18 month period, to 31 March 2021. Paragraph 3.11 of CAP 1775 provides an explanation as to how the CAA have arrived at this estimate.

I wouldn't disagree with anything you've stated, in your second and third and paragraphs, though.smiley

Cheers,

Jeremy Wilkins

Steve J18/08/2019 16:37:44
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For what it's worth, this is my prediction:

Next month the CAA will announce an operator charge that is a bit less than £16.50 so that they can say that they listened to the 11k who responded to the CAP 1775 consultation.

Next May after only 30k people have registered, the DfT and CAA will have a rethink, the government will decide to co-fund the U-Space foundation systems and the charge will be reduced to £5/year for recreational users.

Steve

CARPERFECT18/08/2019 19:25:57
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A good few of us at my club have been discussing how we are not going to pay the £16.50 each. But do it as a group. One of two ways,

1. form a cooperative and call ourselves XYZ Cooperative model flyers. We have 50+ members in our club, But only 10/15 to form the cooperative, and pay £2 each.

2. I would register with the CAA, and in return the 10/15 will pay me £2 each.

In each case just one registration number and one fee.

My club has also muted the idea of being the registered operator for the whole club, and as members pay nothing, just the club pay the fee.

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